Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 30

Beitar Jerusalem–Maccabi Tel Aviv

4–2

HT 3–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.9% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Maccabi Tel AvivI. Shahar (assist: R. Revivo)
18'Beitar JerusalemY. Shua (assist: Y. Cohen)
30'Beitar JerusalemB. Carabalí (assist: Y. Shua)
34'Beitar JerusalemJ. Kalu
45'Maccabi Tel AvivT. Asante (assist: Dor Peretz)
53'Beitar JerusalemO. Atzili

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beitar Jerusalem		Maccabi Tel Aviv
16	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
317	Passes	266
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beitar Jerusalem 1.53 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.59. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Beitar Jerusalem 16 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 6; on target 8 and 2.

Referee

I. Frid→

4.67

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “Beitar Jerusalem to win” at 35.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Beitar Jerusalem, 1.59 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 827 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beitar Jerusalem to win35.7%

Draw25.7%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win38.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 3–2

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time22.0%

Level at half-time39.7%

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time38.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Beitar Jerusalem ahead or level61.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead78.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 826 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13Actual: 16
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 3Actual: 9
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.53

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.53 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.59

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–29.3%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.