Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 30

Hapoel Petah Tikva–Maccabi Haifa

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Hapoel Petah TikvaR. David
64'Maccabi HaifaK. Saief (assist: A. Grimberg)
81'Hapoel Petah TikvaN. Cohen · red card
90'Maccabi HaifaDolev Haziza

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.37 · Maccabi Haifa 1.64. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

D. Zino→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Petah Tikva to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, 1.64 for Maccabi Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 826 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win30.8%

Draw26.0%

Maccabi Haifa to win43.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time42.1%

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time29.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead or level70.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Maccabi Haifa ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 825 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 12
Maccabi Haifa: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 3
Maccabi Haifa: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.37

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score1.64

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–210.0%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.