Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Group - 29

Maccabi Bnei Raina–Hapoel Katamon

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

70'Hapoel KatamonY. Laish (assist: O. Almagor)
84'Maccabi Bnei RainaA. Kanani · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Bnei Raina 0.94 · Hapoel Katamon 1.39. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

D. Fuxman→

4.29

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Hapoel Katamon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 1.39 for Hapoel Katamon.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (X2 — draw or Hapoel Katamon win).
These values were computed from 825 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win24.0%

Draw29.1%

Hapoel Katamon to win46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina win or draw53.1%

12 — any result other than a draw70.9%

X2 — draw or Hapoel Katamon win76.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time19.6%

Level at half-time45.2%

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time35.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead or level64.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Hapoel Katamon ahead80.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 824 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 12
Hapoel Katamon: at least 12

Corners

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 4
Hapoel Katamon: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score0.94

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (47% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.39

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–112.9%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.