Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Group - 29

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Maccabi Netanya

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

Goals and red cards

66'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Ugarriza

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ironi Kiryat Shmona		Maccabi Netanya
13	Shots	22
7	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
323	Passes	569
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.65 · Maccabi Netanya 1.74. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Ironi Kiryat Shmona 13 · Maccabi Netanya 22; on target 7 and 5.
Maccabi Netanya kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

O. Naal→

6.83

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win” at 35.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.74 for Maccabi Netanya.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 825 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win35.7%

Draw24.5%

Maccabi Netanya to win39.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time30.2%

Level at half-time36.6%

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.4%

X2 — level or Maccabi Netanya ahead69.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 824 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 12Actual: 7
Maccabi Netanya: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 3Actual: 4
Maccabi Netanya: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.65

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.74

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–29.2%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.