Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 29

Beitar Jerusalem–Hapoel Petah Tikva

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 28 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Beitar JerusalemO. Atzili (penalty)
17'Beitar JerusalemI. Cohen (own goal)
72'Hapoel Petah TikvaCle (assist: I. Rotman)
84'Beitar JerusalemO. Atzili (assist: T. Muzi)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beitar Jerusalem 1.97 · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.10. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

G. Laibuvitz→

3.83

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.5%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.97 for Beitar Jerusalem, 1.10 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 80.7% (1X — Beitar Jerusalem win or draw).
These values were computed from 824 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beitar Jerusalem to win57.5%

Draw23.2%

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win19.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 2–0

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time28.3%

Level at half-time41.5%

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time30.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Beitar Jerusalem ahead or level69.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead71.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 823 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 13

Corners

Beitar Jerusalem: at least 4
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.97

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.10

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%2–111.0%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.