Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 29

Maccabi Tel Aviv–Hapoel Beer Sheva

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 28 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Maccabi Tel AvivDor Peretz

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Tel Aviv		Hapoel Beer Sheva
11	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	3
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	4
51%	Possession	49%
359	Passes	336
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.46 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.58. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Maccabi Tel Aviv 11 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 11; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

S. Berman→

4.11

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.58 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 823 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win34.2%

Draw26.1%

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time41.6%

Hapoel Beer Sheva lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Hapoel Beer Sheva ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 822 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 14Actual: 11
Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 5Actual: 4
Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.46

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.46 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score1.58

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.58 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–29.5%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.