Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Championship Group - 28

Hapoel Petah Tikva–Hapoel Tel Aviv

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

74'Hapoel Tel AvivX. Silva · red card
89'Hapoel Tel AvivD. Dappa (assist: L. Loizou)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.08 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.52. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

I. Layba→

3.42

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.1%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, 1.52 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (X2 — draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv win).
These values were computed from 820 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win25.4%

Draw27.5%

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win47.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva win or draw52.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.5%

X2 — draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv win74.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time44.6%

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 819 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 12
Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 13

Corners

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 4
Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.08

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.52

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%0–110.5%1–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.