Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Relegation Group - 27

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Hapoel Katamon

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

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Goals and red cards

55'Hapoel KatamonA. Eshata (assist: M. Hozez)
66'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Ugarriza (assist: F. Pacheco)
80'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaY. Mordechai
82'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Ugarriza (assist: C. Martinez)
90+4'Hapoel KatamonT. Haimovich · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.48 · Hapoel Katamon 1.20. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

S. Levi→

5.02

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Katamon to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.20 for Hapoel Katamon.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 818 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win42.8%

Draw27.6%

Hapoel Katamon to win29.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona win or draw70.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.4%

X2 — draw or Hapoel Katamon win57.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time30.2%

Level at half-time42.2%

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Hapoel Katamon ahead69.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 817 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 13
Hapoel Katamon: at least 13

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 3
Hapoel Katamon: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.48

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.20

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.9%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.