Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 26

Hapoel Katamon–Beitar Jerusalem

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Beitar JerusalemE. Gonzalez (assist: O. Atzili)
39'Beitar JerusalemO. Atzili

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon 0.95 · Beitar Jerusalem 1.82. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

I. Frid→

4.70

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.8%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Hapoel Katamon, 1.82 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 82.1% (X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win).
These values were computed from 814 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Katamon to win17.9%

Draw24.3%

Beitar Jerusalem to win57.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon win or draw42.2%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win82.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time44.4%

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time28.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon ahead or level71.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 813 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Katamon: at least 13
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Katamon: at least 3
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score0.95

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.82

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.9%0–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.