Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 26

Maccabi Haifa–Ironi Kiryat Shmona

4–1

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Maccabi HaifaE. Azoulay (assist: M. Ohana)
30'Maccabi HaifaG. Melamed
35'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Ugarriza (assist: A. Shirdatzki)
36'Maccabi HaifaM. Benson (assist: C. Don)
80'Maccabi HaifaG. Melamed (assist: C. Don)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Haifa		Ironi Kiryat Shmona
17	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
476	Passes	310
410	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Haifa 2.18 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.02. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Maccabi Haifa 17 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 10; on target 8 and 2.
Maccabi Haifa kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

O. Asulin→

5.00

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.1%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for Maccabi Haifa, 1.02 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
The highest double chance value is 84.9% (1X — Maccabi Haifa win or draw).
These values were computed from 814 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Haifa to win64.1%

Draw20.8%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win15.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time51.6%

Level at half-time36.3%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time12.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Haifa ahead or level88.0%

12 — not level at half-time63.7%

X2 — level or Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead48.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 813 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Haifa: at least 13Actual: 13
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Maccabi Haifa: at least 5Actual: 3
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score2.18

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.02

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.1%2–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.