Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 26

Ironi Tiberias–Ashdod

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Tiberias 1.68 · Ashdod 1.34. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

D. Fuxman→

4.26

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.8%: “Ironi Tiberias to win”. Second comes “Ashdod to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Ironi Tiberias, 1.34 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 810 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Tiberias to win44.8%

Draw25.8%

Ashdod to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ironi Tiberias win or draw70.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.2%

X2 — draw or Ashdod win55.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time38.9%

Ashdod lead at half-time34.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Tiberias ahead or level65.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 809 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Tiberias: at least 12
Ashdod: at least 12

Corners

Ironi Tiberias: at least 4
Ashdod: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,511 of 4,397 predictions were correct (57.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score1.68

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ashdod score1.34

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.1%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.