Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 25

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Maccabi Haifa

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 6 April 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'Maccabi HaifaN. Ratner · red card
63'Hapoel Tel AvivS. Turiel (penalty)
89'Hapoel Tel AvivL. Loizou (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		Maccabi Haifa
13	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	10
2	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
328	Passes	367
267	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.47 · Maccabi Haifa 1.35. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 13 · Maccabi Haifa 9; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

O. Naal→

7.20

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Haifa to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 1.35 for Maccabi Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 809 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win39.3%

Draw27.2%

Maccabi Haifa to win33.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Maccabi Haifa ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 808 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 7
Maccabi Haifa: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 4Actual: 6
Maccabi Haifa: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.47

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score1.35

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.