Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 25

Hapoel Haifa–Maccabi Tel Aviv

1–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Maccabi Tel AvivDor Peretz
38'Maccabi Tel AvivI. Shahar (assist: R. Revivo)
45'Maccabi Tel AvivO. Davida (assist: Dor Peretz)
54'Hapoel HaifaA. Turgeman (assist: N. Sabag)
83'Maccabi Tel AvivHélio Varela (assist: S. Yehezkel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Haifa		Maccabi Tel Aviv
8	Shots	16
1	Shots on target	10
7	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
381	Passes	474
314	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Haifa 0.98 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.09. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Hapoel Haifa 8 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 16; on target 1 and 10.
Maccabi Tel Aviv kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Y. Mizrahi→

5.25

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.1%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Hapoel Haifa, 2.09 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 84.6% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win).
These values were computed from 808 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Haifa to win15.4%

Draw21.5%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win63.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time20.6%

Level at half-time40.4%

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time39.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Haifa ahead or level61.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead79.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 807 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Haifa: at least 13Actual: 7
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Hapoel Haifa: at least 3Actual: 1
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score0.98

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score2.09

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–211.0%1–110.7%0–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.