Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 25

Hapoel Beer Sheva–Hapoel Petah Tikva

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Hapoel Beer ShevaZ. Ahmed (assist: M. Abu Rumi)
52'Hapoel Petah TikvaR. David (assist: Mamady Diarra)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.22 · Hapoel Petah Tikva 0.96. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

D. Fuxman→

4.27

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.5%: “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.22 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 0.96 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva win or draw).
These values were computed from 805 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win66.5%

Draw20.0%

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win13.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hapoel Beer Sheva lead at half-time33.7%

Level at half-time42.1%

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time24.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva ahead or level75.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead66.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 804 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 12
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 13

Corners

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 5
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score2.22

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score0.96

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.5%1–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.