Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 25

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Bnei Sakhnin

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaM. Simantov (assist: N. Ljubisavljević)
43'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Ugarriza

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ironi Kiryat Shmona		Bnei Sakhnin
8	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
423	Passes	600
330	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.57 · Bnei Sakhnin 1.08. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Ironi Kiryat Shmona 8 · Bnei Sakhnin 7; on target 4 and 2.
Bnei Sakhnin kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

D. Zino→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.08 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona win or draw).
These values were computed from 804 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win48.1%

Draw27.1%

Bnei Sakhnin to win24.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time31.6%

Level at half-time42.1%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time26.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level73.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead68.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 803 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 13Actual: 8
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 4Actual: 5
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.57

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.08

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.3%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.