·The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.5%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Netanya to win” at 26.1%.
·Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Maccabi Netanya, 1.86 for Beitar Jerusalem.
·The highest double chance value is 75.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
·These values were computed from 802 past matches.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
Maccabi Netanya to win26.1%
Draw24.4%
Beitar Jerusalem to win49.5%
When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →
Boris Enow (assist: E. Gonzalez)
45'⚽Beitar JerusalemA. Yona (assist: Y. Shua)
80'⚽Beitar JerusalemY. Cohen (assist: J. Kalu)
88'⚽Beitar JerusalemZ. Ben Shimol (assist: Y. Cohen)
90'⚽Beitar JerusalemJ. Kalu
410
15
Fouls
14
3
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
Both teams to score
65.6%
When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 764 of 1,176 predictions were correct (65.0%). Accuracy record →
Double chance
1X — Maccabi Netanya win or draw50.5%
12 — any result other than a draw75.6%
X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win73.9%
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).
First half
Actual: 2–5
Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time31.2%
Level at half-time40.8%
Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time28.0%
First-half double chance
1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level72.0%
12 — not level at half-time59.2%
X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead68.8%
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 801 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Expected fouls and corners
Fouls
Maccabi Netanya
at least 13Actual: 15
Beitar Jerusalem
at least 12Actual: 14
Corners
Maccabi Netanya
at least 3Actual: 3
Beitar Jerusalem
at least 4Actual: 2
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
Goals market
3+ goals63.1%
When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
What these probabilities rest on
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.33
Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).
How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.86
Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (24% more).
Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including the away penalty).
Most likely scorelines
1–111.5%1–210.4%2–17.2%
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 802 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 111 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.
Maccabi Netanya–
Beitar Jerusalem