Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 24

Maccabi Haifa–Hapoel Petah Tikva

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'Hapoel Petah TikvaMamady Diarra (assist: Cle)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Haifa 2.10 · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.14. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

A. Shiloach→

4.13

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for Maccabi Haifa, 1.14 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 81.5% (1X — Maccabi Haifa win or draw).
These values were computed from 797 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Haifa to win59.4%

Draw22.1%

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win18.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Haifa win or draw81.5%

12 — any result other than a draw77.9%

X2 — draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva win40.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time42.1%

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time25.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Haifa ahead or level74.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 796 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Haifa: at least 13
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 12

Corners

Maccabi Haifa: at least 4
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score2.10

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.14

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.5%2–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.