Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 24

Maccabi Tel Aviv–Ashdod

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Maccabi Tel AvivE. Sahiti (assist: R. Revivo)
37'AshdodI. Diakite (assist: I. Tamam)
42'Maccabi Tel AvivS. Abu Farkhi (assist: R. Revivo)
49'Maccabi Tel AvivHélio Varela (assist: E. Sahiti)
57'AshdodE. Almog (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Tel Aviv		Ashdod
13	Shots	13
10	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
396	Passes	341
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.55 · Ashdod 0.66. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Maccabi Tel Aviv 13 · Ashdod 13; on target 10 and 3.

Referee

S. Berman→

4.06

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.2%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.55 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 0.66 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 93.7% (1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv win or draw).
These values were computed from 796 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win79.2%

Draw14.5%

Ashdod to win6.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time58.6%

Level at half-time33.1%

Ashdod lead at half-time8.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead or level91.7%

12 — not level at half-time66.9%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead41.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 795 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 11
Ashdod: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 5Actual: 3
Ashdod: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score2.55

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.55 goals.

How many goals Ashdod score0.66

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.5%3–011.6%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.