Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 23

Hapoel Petah Tikva–Hapoel Haifa

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Hapoel HaifaA. Turgeman

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.98 · Hapoel Haifa 1.20. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

D. Zino→

3.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “Hapoel Petah Tikva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, 1.20 for Hapoel Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva win or draw).
These values were computed from 790 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win55.2%

Draw23.3%

Hapoel Haifa to win21.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time50.0%

Level at half-time37.8%

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time12.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead or level87.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Hapoel Haifa ahead50.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 789 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 13
Hapoel Haifa: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 4
Hapoel Haifa: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.98

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.20

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–110.8%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.