Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 23

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Hapoel Katamon

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 13 February 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'Hapoel Tel AvivS. Turiel (penalty)
45'Hapoel Tel AvivS. Turiel (assist: A. Kraev)
70'Hapoel KatamonM. Rakonjac
88'Hapoel Tel AvivE. Boateng (assist: L. Loizou)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.71 · Hapoel Katamon 0.86. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

S. Levi→

5.02

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.4%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 0.86 for Hapoel Katamon.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv win or draw).
These values were computed from 789 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win57.4%

Draw25.3%

Hapoel Katamon to win17.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 2–0

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time30.5%

Level at half-time46.5%

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Hapoel Katamon ahead69.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 788 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 14
Hapoel Katamon: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 4
Hapoel Katamon: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.71

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score0.86

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–012.4%2–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.