Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 22

Hapoel Beer Sheva–Beitar Jerusalem

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 9 February 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'Hapoel Beer ShevaI. Zlatanović
57'Beitar JerusalemG. Morozov (assist: B. Enow)
65'Hapoel Beer ShevaOr Blorian (assist: K. Kangwa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Beer Sheva		Beitar Jerusalem
17	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
346	Passes	289
246	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.93 · Beitar Jerusalem 1.15. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hapoel Beer Sheva 17 · Beitar Jerusalem 8; on target 9 and 1.

Referee

S. Berman→

3.94

yellows per match

0.47

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.3%: “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 1.15 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 78.9% (1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva win or draw).
These values were computed from 788 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win55.3%

Draw23.7%

Beitar Jerusalem to win21.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hapoel Beer Sheva lead at half-time44.6%

Level at half-time39.8%

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead55.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 787 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 13Actual: 10
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 4Actual: 4
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score1.93

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.15

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–110.9%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.