Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 22

Bnei Sakhnin–Hapoel Petah Tikva

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Doha Stadium, Sakhnin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Hapoel Petah TikvaM. Koszta (assist: Cle)
55'Bnei SakhninA. Salman (penalty)
59'Hapoel Petah TikvaM. Koszta (assist: C. Songa)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bnei Sakhnin 1.11 · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.59. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

O. Asulin→

4.96

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “Hapoel Petah Tikva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Bnei Sakhnin, 1.59 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (X2 — draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva win).
These values were computed from 784 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bnei Sakhnin to win25.2%

Draw26.8%

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win48.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time18.2%

Level at half-time42.4%

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time39.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Bnei Sakhnin ahead or level60.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead81.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 783 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 12
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 12

Corners

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.11

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.59

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.4%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.