Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 21

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Maccabi Tel Aviv

1–4

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Monday, 2 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Maccabi Tel AvivDor Peretz (assist: S. Abu Farkhi)
12'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Shirdatzki (assist: M. Abu Rumi)
20'Maccabi Tel AvivS. Abu Farkhi (penalty)
45'Maccabi Tel AvivO. Davida (assist: Hélio Varela)
63'Maccabi Tel AvivK. Andrade

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ironi Kiryat Shmona		Maccabi Tel Aviv
6	Shots	23
2	Shots on target	13
3	Shots inside the box	17
9	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
34%	Possession	66%
237	Passes	446
163	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.18 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.09. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Ironi Kiryat Shmona 6 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 23; on target 2 and 13.
Maccabi Tel Aviv kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

I. Layba→

3.43

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.2%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 2.09 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win).
These values were computed from 781 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win19.5%

Draw22.3%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win58.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time15.6%

Level at half-time38.5%

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time45.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level54.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead84.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 780 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 14Actual: 12
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 2Actual: 1
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.18

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score2.09

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.09 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–110.5%0–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.