Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 21

Hapoel Petah Tikva–Ashdod

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Hapoel Petah TikvaR. David
90'Hapoel Petah TikvaB. Golan (assist: M. Koszta)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Petah Tikva 2.17 · Ashdod 1.06. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

A. Shiloach→

4.15

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.0%: “Hapoel Petah Tikva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.17 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, 1.06 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 84.1% (1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva win or draw).
These values were computed from 780 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win63.0%

Draw21.1%

Ashdod to win15.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva win or draw84.1%

12 — any result other than a draw78.9%

X2 — draw or Ashdod win37.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time66.5%

Level at half-time28.5%

Ashdod lead at half-time5.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead or level95.0%

12 — not level at half-time71.5%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead33.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 779 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 13
Ashdod: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 5
Ashdod: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score2.17

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ashdod score1.06

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.2%2–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.