Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 21

Bnei Sakhnin–Hapoel Katamon

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Doha Stadium, Sakhnin

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'Hapoel KatamonO. Nadir · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bnei Sakhnin 1.12 · Hapoel Katamon 1.20. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

S. Berman→

3.97

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.8%: “Hapoel Katamon to win”. Second comes “Bnei Sakhnin to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Bnei Sakhnin, 1.20 for Hapoel Katamon.
The highest double chance value is 69.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 777 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bnei Sakhnin to win32.9%

Draw30.3%

Hapoel Katamon to win36.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time26.0%

Level at half-time46.5%

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Bnei Sakhnin ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Hapoel Katamon ahead74.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 776 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 12
Hapoel Katamon: at least 12

Corners

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3
Hapoel Katamon: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.12

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.20

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–110.9%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.