Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 21

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Maccabi Netanya

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'Hapoel Tel AvivR. Korine
89'Hapoel Tel AvivA. Lemkin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		Maccabi Netanya
18	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	0
1	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
430	Passes	398
363	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 2.00 · Maccabi Netanya 1.17. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 18 · Maccabi Netanya 6; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

O. Naal→

6.33

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 1.17 for Maccabi Netanya.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv win or draw).
These values were computed from 775 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win56.6%

Draw23.0%

Maccabi Netanya to win20.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time44.7%

Level at half-time38.2%

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time17.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead or level82.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Maccabi Netanya ahead55.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 774 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 14
Maccabi Netanya: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 4
Maccabi Netanya: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score2.00

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.17

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–110.9%2–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.