Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 20

Ashdod–Beitar Jerusalem

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yud-Alef Stadium, Ashdod

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'AshdodI. Hajaj
61'Beitar JerusalemY. Cohen (assist: A. Yona)
64'AshdodE. Agyei · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ashdod		Beitar Jerusalem
9	Shots	23
3	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	16
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
24%	Possession	76%
193	Passes	628
113	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ashdod 0.91 · Beitar Jerusalem 2.20. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Ashdod 9 · Beitar Jerusalem 23; on target 3 and 3.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (76%).

Referee

A. Klein→

4.94

yellows per match

0.61

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.2%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for Ashdod, 2.20 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 87.2% (X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win).
These values were computed from 773 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ashdod to win12.8%

Draw20.0%

Beitar Jerusalem to win67.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ashdod lead at half-time17.8%

Level at half-time38.3%

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time44.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Ashdod ahead or level56.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead82.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 772 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ashdod: at least 12Actual: 13
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Ashdod: at least 3Actual: 3
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ashdod score0.91

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score2.20

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.1%1–210.9%1–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.