Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 20

Ironi Tiberias–Bnei Sakhnin

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

66'Bnei SakhninA. Miranyan
90'Ironi TiberiasI. Shviro (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Tiberias 1.36 · Bnei Sakhnin 1.21. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

A. Levi→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Ironi Tiberias to win”. Second comes “Bnei Sakhnin to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Ironi Tiberias, 1.21 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 770 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Tiberias to win39.2%

Draw28.6%

Bnei Sakhnin to win32.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time19.1%

Level at half-time41.6%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time39.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Tiberias ahead or level60.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead80.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 769 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Tiberias: at least 13
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 12

Corners

Ironi Tiberias: at least 5
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score1.36

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.21

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–09.5%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.