Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 20

Hapoel Haifa–Maccabi Bnei Raina

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

80'Maccabi Bnei RainaA. Sefer (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Haifa 1.87 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.01. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

S. Berman→

3.93

yellows per match

0.47

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.6%: “Hapoel Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Hapoel Haifa, 1.01 for Maccabi Bnei Raina.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — Hapoel Haifa win or draw).
These values were computed from 770 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Haifa to win57.6%

Draw23.9%

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win18.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Haifa win or draw81.4%

12 — any result other than a draw76.1%

X2 — draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina win42.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time47.7%

Level at half-time37.9%

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Haifa ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead52.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 769 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Haifa: at least 12
Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Haifa: at least 3
Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,137 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.87

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score1.01

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–111.0%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.