Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 20

Hapoel Katamon–Hapoel Petah Tikva

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 23 January 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'Hapoel KatamonT. Haimovich (assist: M. Hozez)
68'Hapoel Petah TikvaM. Koszta
90'Hapoel KatamonA. Idoko (assist: M. Diab)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon 1.28 · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.60. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

G. Levi→

4.58

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Hapoel Petah Tikva to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Katamon to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Hapoel Katamon, 1.60 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 768 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Katamon to win29.4%

Draw26.5%

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win44.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time19.9%

Level at half-time42.2%

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time37.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon ahead or level62.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead80.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 767 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Katamon: at least 13
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Katamon: at least 4
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.28

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.60

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–210.1%0–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.