Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 19

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Hapoel Beer Sheva

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 19 January 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Hapoel Tel AvivL. Loizou
55'Hapoel Beer ShevaK. Kangwa
90'Hapoel Tel AvivA. Lemkin (assist: L. Rotman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		Hapoel Beer Sheva
4	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	4
2	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	7
4	Offsides	0
29%	Possession	71%
257	Passes	636
167	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.15 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.77. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 4 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 17; on target 3 and 4.
Hapoel Beer Sheva kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

A. Shiloach→

4.18

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.5%: “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 1.77 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (X2 — draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva win).
These values were computed from 767 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win23.3%

Draw25.2%

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win51.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time20.6%

Level at half-time41.7%

Hapoel Beer Sheva lead at half-time37.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead or level62.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Hapoel Beer Sheva ahead79.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 766 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 15Actual: 14
Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 4Actual: 3
Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score1.15

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score1.77

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–210.7%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.