Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 19

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Hapoel Haifa

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 19 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Hapoel HaifaR. Hatuel
36'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaY. Mordechai
75'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaC. Martinez (assist: Y. Mordechai)
90'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaM. Simantov (assist: D. Avraham)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ironi Kiryat Shmona		Hapoel Haifa
22	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
15	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
417	Passes	367
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.54 · Hapoel Haifa 1.51. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Ironi Kiryat Shmona 22 · Hapoel Haifa 8; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

D. Zino→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Haifa to win” at 36.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.51 for Hapoel Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 766 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win37.6%

Draw26.1%

Hapoel Haifa to win36.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time41.1%

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Hapoel Haifa ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 765 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 13Actual: 15
Hapoel Haifa: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 4Actual: 1
Hapoel Haifa: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.54

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.51

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.