Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 19

Maccabi Bnei Raina–Ashdod

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.34 · Ashdod 1.50. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

S. Levi→

5.00

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “Ashdod to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Bnei Raina to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 1.50 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 763 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win32.9%

Draw27.0%

Ashdod to win40.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina win or draw60.0%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or Ashdod win67.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time39.4%

Ashdod lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 762 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 13
Ashdod: at least 12

Corners

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 4
Ashdod: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 50.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score1.34

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ashdod score1.50

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–29.6%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.