Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 18

Hapoel Beer Sheva–Maccabi Haifa

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Beer Sheva		Maccabi Haifa
17	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	8
11	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
477	Passes	366
405	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.80 · Maccabi Haifa 1.18. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Hapoel Beer Sheva 17 · Maccabi Haifa 11; on target 8 and 5.
Hapoel Beer Sheva kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Klein→

4.82

yellows per match

0.65

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 1.18 for Maccabi Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva win or draw).
These values were computed from 759 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win51.4%

Draw24.9%

Maccabi Haifa to win23.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

6	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Beer Sheva lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time43.2%

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Maccabi Haifa ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 758 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 13Actual: 10
Maccabi Haifa: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 3Actual: 11
Maccabi Haifa: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score1.80

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.80 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score1.18

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.7%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.