Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 18

Maccabi Netanya–Hapoel Katamon

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 9 January 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Maccabi NetanyaW. Harris (assist: M. Levi)
90'Hapoel KatamonG. Badash (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.74 · Hapoel Katamon 1.22. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

A. Shiloach→

4.11

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Maccabi Netanya, 1.22 for Hapoel Katamon.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (1X — Maccabi Netanya win or draw).
These values were computed from 754 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win49.3%

Draw25.4%

Hapoel Katamon to win25.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time28.0%

Level at half-time42.4%

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Hapoel Katamon ahead72.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 753 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Netanya: at least 13
Hapoel Katamon: at least 11

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 4
Hapoel Katamon: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.74

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.22

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.6%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.