Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 17

Maccabi Haifa–Hapoel Haifa

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 5 January 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Hapoel HaifaSaná Gomes · red card
35'Maccabi HaifaE. Azoulay (assist: J. Bataille)
45'Maccabi HaifaG. Melamed (assist: K. Gorré)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Haifa		Hapoel Haifa
14	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
74%	Possession	26%
685	Passes	233
625	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Haifa 2.10 · Hapoel Haifa 0.96. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Maccabi Haifa 14 · Hapoel Haifa 7; on target 8 and 3.
Maccabi Haifa kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

O. Grinfeld→

5.00

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.7%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for Maccabi Haifa, 0.96 for Hapoel Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (1X — Maccabi Haifa win or draw).
These values were computed from 753 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Haifa to win63.7%

Draw21.4%

Hapoel Haifa to win14.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time38.6%

Level at half-time42.5%

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Haifa ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Hapoel Haifa ahead61.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 752 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Haifa: at least 13Actual: 10
Hapoel Haifa: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Maccabi Haifa: at least 5Actual: 8
Hapoel Haifa: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score2.10

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score0.96

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.6%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.