Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 17

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Beitar Jerusalem

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Beitar JerusalemY. Shua (penalty)
62'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaD. Avraham · red card
69'Beitar JerusalemO. Atzili (assist: Y. Levi)
72'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaA. Ugarriza (assist: N. Ljubisavljević)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ironi Kiryat Shmona		Beitar Jerusalem
12	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
274	Passes	566
184	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.05 · Beitar Jerusalem 2.04. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Ironi Kiryat Shmona 12 · Beitar Jerusalem 18; on target 3 and 8.
Beitar Jerusalem kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

G. Levi→

4.46

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.3%: “Beitar Jerusalem to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 2.04 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win).
These values were computed from 752 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win17.4%

Draw22.3%

Beitar Jerusalem to win60.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

6	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time21.9%

Level at half-time40.9%

Beitar Jerusalem lead at half-time37.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level62.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Beitar Jerusalem ahead78.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 751 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 13Actual: 16
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 3Actual: 4
Beitar Jerusalem: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.05

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score2.04

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–211.0%1–111.0%0–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.