Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 17

Hapoel Tel Aviv–Ashdod

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'Hapoel Tel AvivO. Altman · red card
74'AshdodR. Meir · red card
84'Hapoel Tel AvivL. Loizou

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hapoel Tel Aviv		Ashdod
13	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	6
53%	Possession	47%
420	Passes	359
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Tel Aviv 2.12 · Ashdod 0.87. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Hapoel Tel Aviv 13 · Ashdod 13; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

O. Naal→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.7%: “Hapoel Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, 0.87 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 87.3% (1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv win or draw).
These values were computed from 751 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win66.7%

Draw20.5%

Ashdod to win12.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	11

6	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Tel Aviv lead at half-time56.9%

Level at half-time33.2%

Ashdod lead at half-time9.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Tel Aviv ahead or level90.1%

12 — not level at half-time66.8%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead43.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 750 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 14Actual: 22
Ashdod: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Hapoel Tel Aviv: at least 5Actual: 3
Ashdod: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score2.12

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ashdod score0.87

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.6%2–110.9%1–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.