Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 17

Ironi Tiberias–Maccabi Netanya

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Green Stadium, Nazareth Illit

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Ironi TiberiasI. Shviro (assist: D. Golani)
38'Ironi TiberiasE. Balilti
58'Ironi TiberiasG. Hadida
73'Ironi TiberiasW. Habiballa

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Tiberias 1.27 · Maccabi Netanya 1.92. On the pitch: 4-0.

Referee

D. Tzino→

4.89

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Ironi Tiberias, 1.92 for Maccabi Netanya.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Netanya win).
These values were computed from 749 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Tiberias to win23.9%

Draw23.9%

Maccabi Netanya to win52.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 2–0

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time17.0%

Level at half-time39.8%

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time43.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Tiberias ahead or level56.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Maccabi Netanya ahead83.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 748 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Tiberias: at least 12
Maccabi Netanya: at least 12

Corners

Ironi Tiberias: at least 4
Maccabi Netanya: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score1.27

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.92

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–210.6%0–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.