Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 17

Hapoel Petah Tikva–Maccabi Bnei Raina

4–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Hapoel Petah TikvaS. Mazal (assist: R. David)
17'Hapoel Petah TikvaR. David (assist: C. Songa)
20'Hapoel Petah TikvaR. David (assist: N. Niddam)
52'Maccabi Bnei RainaI. Elmkies (assist: E. Banda)
63'Hapoel Petah TikvaC. Songa (assist: N. Niddam)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Petah Tikva 2.08 · Maccabi Bnei Raina 0.99. On the pitch: 4-1.

Referee

A. Shiloach→

4.12

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.6%: “Hapoel Petah Tikva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, 0.99 for Maccabi Bnei Raina.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva win or draw).
These values were computed from 749 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win62.6%

Draw21.7%

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win15.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 3–0

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time51.8%

Level at half-time36.8%

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time11.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead or level88.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead48.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 748 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 13
Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 4
Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score2.08

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score0.99

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.7%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.