Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 17

Bnei Sakhnin–Hapoel Beer Sheva

0–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Doha Stadium, Sakhnin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Bnei SakhninM. Anim Cudjoe · red card
33'Hapoel Beer ShevaI. Zlatanović (assist: Hélder Lopes)
45'Hapoel Beer ShevaD. Biton (assist: S. Elias)
49'Hapoel Beer ShevaD. Biton
71'Hapoel Beer ShevaM. Kna'an (assist: Lucas Ventura)
85'Hapoel Beer ShevaK. Kangwa

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bnei Sakhnin		Hapoel Beer Sheva
2	Shots	28
0	Shots on target	13
1	Shots inside the box	19
8	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
25%	Possession	75%
227	Passes	692
149	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bnei Sakhnin 0.78 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.98. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Bnei Sakhnin 2 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 28; on target 0 and 13.
Hapoel Beer Sheva kept the ball more (75%).

Referee

Y. Mizrahi→

5.26

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.9%: “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.78 for Bnei Sakhnin, 1.98 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (X2 — draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva win).
These values were computed from 748 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bnei Sakhnin to win12.4%

Draw21.6%

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win65.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time18.4%

Level at half-time41.7%

Hapoel Beer Sheva lead at half-time39.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Bnei Sakhnin ahead or level60.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Hapoel Beer Sheva ahead81.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 747 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 13Actual: 6
Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3
Hapoel Beer Sheva: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score0.78

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score1.98

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.8%0–111.9%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.