Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 16

Ashdod–Maccabi Haifa

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 31 December 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yud-Alef Stadium, Ashdod

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Maccabi HaifaSilva Kani
43'Maccabi HaifaP. Agba (assist: K. Gorré)
58'Maccabi HaifaK. Gorré (assist: L. Eissat)
79'Maccabi HaifaDolev Haziza (assist: P. Cornud)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ashdod		Maccabi Haifa
8	Shots	20
1	Shots on target	9
3	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	9
2	Offsides	1
34%	Possession	66%
328	Passes	637
259	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ashdod 1.00 · Maccabi Haifa 2.06. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Ashdod 8 · Maccabi Haifa 20; on target 1 and 9.
Maccabi Haifa kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

G. Laibuvitz→

3.79

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.1%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for Ashdod, 2.06 for Maccabi Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 84.0% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Haifa win).
These values were computed from 744 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ashdod to win16.0%

Draw21.9%

Maccabi Haifa to win62.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Ashdod lead at half-time16.5%

Level at half-time38.6%

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time44.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Ashdod ahead or level55.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Maccabi Haifa ahead83.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 743 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ashdod: at least 13Actual: 8
Maccabi Haifa: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Ashdod: at least 3Actual: 1
Maccabi Haifa: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ashdod score1.00

Attack: Ashdod score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score2.06

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–211.0%1–110.8%0–210.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.