Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 16

Maccabi Netanya–Hapoel Petah Tikva

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 31 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Hapoel Petah TikvaA. James (assist: N. Cohen)
60'Hapoel Petah TikvaCle (assist: A. James)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.99 · Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.47. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

S. Berman→

3.93

yellows per match

0.48

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.5%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Petah Tikva to win” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.99 for Maccabi Netanya, 1.47 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 743 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win49.5%

Draw23.4%

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win27.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time21.0%

Level at half-time38.9%

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time40.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level59.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead79.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 742 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Netanya: at least 13
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 11

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 4
Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.99

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.47

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.3%2–110.1%2–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.