Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 15

Maccabi Netanya–Maccabi Tel Aviv

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Maccabi Tel AvivDor Peretz
18'Maccabi NetanyaO. Bilu
45'Maccabi Tel AvivM. Camara · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Netanya		Maccabi Tel Aviv
13	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
412	Passes	353
346	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.28 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.22. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Maccabi Netanya 13 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 8; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

A. Klein→

4.69

yellows per match

0.63

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.8%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Maccabi Netanya, 2.22 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win).
These values were computed from 738 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win19.8%

Draw21.4%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time16.0%

Level at half-time37.9%

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time46.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level53.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead84.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 737 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Netanya: at least 13Actual: 17
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 3Actual: 5
Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.28

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score2.22

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.22 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–210.5%1–19.5%1–37.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.