Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 15

Hapoel Katamon–Hapoel Haifa

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.2% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Hapoel HaifaY. Ferber (assist: J. East)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Katamon 1.35 · Hapoel Haifa 1.32. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

A. Levi→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.6%: “Hapoel Katamon to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Haifa to win” at 35.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Hapoel Katamon, 1.32 for Hapoel Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 734 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Katamon to win36.6%

Draw28.1%

Hapoel Haifa to win35.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time29.1%

Level at half-time45.7%

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Katamon ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Hapoel Haifa ahead70.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 733 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Katamon: at least 13
Hapoel Haifa: at least 11

Corners

Hapoel Katamon: at least 4
Hapoel Haifa: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.35

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score1.32

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.1%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.