Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 14

Maccabi Bnei Raina–Maccabi Haifa

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Maccabi HaifaG. Melamed (assist: M. Ohana)
20'Maccabi Bnei RainaA. Pejić · red card
44'Maccabi HaifaK. Saief (assist: K. Gorré)
64'Maccabi HaifaE. Azoulay (penalty)
69'Maccabi HaifaG. Melamed (assist: J. Bataille)
73'Maccabi Haifa

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Bnei Raina 0.79 · Maccabi Haifa 2.22. On the pitch: 0-4.

Referee

I. Layba→

3.38

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.5%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.79 for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 2.22 for Maccabi Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Haifa win).
These values were computed from 730 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win10.5%

Draw19.0%

Maccabi Haifa to win70.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 913 of 1,223 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–2

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time16.3%

Level at half-time43.2%

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time40.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead or level59.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Maccabi Haifa ahead83.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 729 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 13
Maccabi Haifa: at least 12

Corners

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 3
Maccabi Haifa: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score0.79

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score2.22

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.5%1–210.6%0–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.