Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 14

Ashdod–Hapoel Katamon

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yud-Alef Stadium, Ashdod

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

77'Hapoel KatamonC. Don (assist: G. Badash)
90'Hapoel KatamonC. Don (assist: O. Agvadish)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ashdod 1.41 · Hapoel Katamon 1.25. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

O. Naal→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Ashdod to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Katamon to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Ashdod, 1.25 for Hapoel Katamon.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 726 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ashdod to win39.9%

Draw28.0%

Hapoel Katamon to win32.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ashdod lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time42.4%

Hapoel Katamon lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ashdod ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Hapoel Katamon ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 725 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ashdod: at least 13
Hapoel Katamon: at least 12

Corners

Ashdod: at least 3
Hapoel Katamon: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ashdod score1.41

Attack: Ashdod score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Katamon's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Katamon score1.25

Attack: Hapoel Katamon score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.5%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.