Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 13

Maccabi Bnei Raina–Bnei Sakhnin

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 8 December 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

78'Maccabi Bnei RainaM. Shaker · red card
90'Bnei SakhninA. Miranyan (assist: I. Drame)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.14 · Bnei Sakhnin 1.30. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

Y. Mizrahi→

5.30

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Bnei Sakhnin to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Bnei Raina to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 1.30 for Bnei Sakhnin.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 723 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win31.4%

Draw29.3%

Bnei Sakhnin to win39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina win or draw60.8%

12 — any result other than a draw70.7%

X2 — draw or Bnei Sakhnin win68.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time44.0%

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time32.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead or level67.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Bnei Sakhnin ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 722 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 13
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 11

Corners

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 4
Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score1.14

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.30

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–110.4%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.