Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 13

Ironi Kiryat Shmona–Maccabi Haifa

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium, Kiryat Shmona

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Maccabi HaifaK. Saief (assist: Silva Kani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ironi Kiryat Shmona		Maccabi Haifa
12	Shots	20
6	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	17
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	10
3	Offsides	3
40%	Possession	60%
285	Passes	418
207	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.11 · Maccabi Haifa 1.74. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Ironi Kiryat Shmona 12 · Maccabi Haifa 20; on target 6 and 6.
Maccabi Haifa kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Y. Klez→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, 1.74 for Maccabi Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Haifa win).
These values were computed from 720 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win22.7%

Draw25.4%

Maccabi Haifa to win51.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time20.0%

Level at half-time42.4%

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time37.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead or level62.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Maccabi Haifa ahead80.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 719 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 13Actual: 14
Maccabi Haifa: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 3Actual: 3
Maccabi Haifa: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.11

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score1.74

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–210.7%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.