Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 12

Maccabi Tel Aviv–Hapoel Haifa

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 3 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'Maccabi Tel AvivI. Shahar · red card
57'Maccabi Tel AvivS. Abu Farkhi (assist: R. Revivo)
60'Maccabi Tel AvivDor Peretz (assist: I. Nicolaescu)
84'Hapoel HaifaJ. East (assist: O. Biton)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Tel Aviv		Hapoel Haifa
14	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
343	Passes	325
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.35 · Hapoel Haifa 0.90. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Maccabi Tel Aviv 14 · Hapoel Haifa 8; on target 8 and 3.

Referee

G. Levi→

4.49

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.4%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 0.90 for Hapoel Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 88.8% (1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv win or draw).
These values were computed from 718 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win70.4%

Draw18.4%

Hapoel Haifa to win11.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 913 of 1,223 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead at half-time48.8%

Level at half-time37.9%

Hapoel Haifa lead at half-time13.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv ahead or level86.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Hapoel Haifa ahead51.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 717 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 13Actual: 17
Hapoel Haifa: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Maccabi Tel Aviv: at least 5Actual: 6
Hapoel Haifa: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score2.35

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Haifa's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hapoel Haifa score0.90

Attack: Hapoel Haifa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.0%2–110.6%1–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.